What is a roadmap conviction score?

A roadmap conviction score reflects how decision-ready a roadmap is based on clarity and evidence. Low scores indicate missing validation, vague assumptions, or unclear success metrics.

What score is “good enough” to ship?

It depends on risk, but many teams use a threshold like 70/100 for net-new bets. Below that, the remedy is to upgrade evidence and reduce scope until verification is possible.

Decision Readiness • February 2026

Roadmap Conviction 51/100: From “Needs Clarity” to “Ready to Ship”

A roadmap conviction score of 51/100 isn’t a failure. It’s a warning: you’re about to fund bets that may not survive contact with reality. The fix is not more debate—it’s better evidence.

What Conviction Actually Measures

Conviction is the combination of:

Clarity — what we’re building, for whom, and why it should work
Evidence — signals that reduce the probability of a wrong bet
Verifiability — measurable success metrics and kill criteria

Key Insight

Low conviction doesn’t mean “stop.” It means “reduce scope until the bet becomes verifiable.”

A Real Example: Conviction 51/100 (Needs Clarity)

Conviction
51/100 • Signal High
Trend
Stable (+0)

Guidance (This Week)
Roadmap score lever: [Market Reality]
Strengthen external validation: refresh TAM/SOM assumptions and tie the bet to measurable demand signals.

This is a classic pattern: you have plenty of internal signal, but the roadmap needs stronger market reality and clearer success thresholds.

The Evidence Ladder (Upgrade Conviction Fast)

Move bets up this ladder before approving more scope:

Opinion — “We think users want this.”
Observation — sessions, interviews, support logs show pain.
Behavior — users already do workarounds; demand is pulling.
Commitment — users sign up, pre-pay, or agree to trials.
Proof — experiments demonstrate measurable improvement.

The goal isn’t perfection. The goal is to be above “opinion” before spending serious engineering time.

Kill Criteria: The Missing Ingredient

Roadmaps become wasteful when bets can’t die. Add kill criteria to every net-new bet:

If we do X, we expect Y within Z.
If Y does not happen, we stop or shrink the bet.

Example

If we ship the new onboarding flow,
we expect activation rate to improve by +8% within 21 days.
If improvement is < +3%, we roll back and redesign.

Founder Benefit

Kill criteria protect runway. They turn “hope” into a reversible experiment.

The 2-Week Conviction Sprint (Raise to ≥ 70)

Week 1: Market Reality Upgrade

Refresh TAM/SOM assumptions with current signals.
Collect 5–10 demand signals: inbound requests, competitor pricing, waitlist conversion, paid pilots.
Rewrite the bet as a falsifiable hypothesis.

Week 2: Verifiability Upgrade

Define success metrics + baseline.
Add kill criteria and rollback plan.
Reduce scope to the smallest verifiable slice.

Decision Queue: Conviction as a Gate

BLOCK: Net-New Bets Until Conviction ≥ 70

BLOCK
Roadmap conviction is 51/100. Block additional net-new bets until evidence improves.
Owner: Head of Product • Due: 2026-02-27
Metric: Roadmap conviction ≥ 70 with high evidence signal

SHIP: Evidence Upgrades for Top Bets

SHIP
Upgrade evidence on top 5 highest-impact bets using the evidence ladder + kill criteria.
Owner: Founder/CEO + PMs • Due: 2 weeks
Metric: Top 5 bets have success metrics + kill criteria + external demand signal

DEFER: Bets Stuck at “Opinion”

DEFER
Defer bets that cannot produce verification within one cycle.
Owner: Head of Product • Review: monthly
Metric: % bets with verifiable success metrics increasing

How ProdMoh Helps

ProdMoh generates a conviction score and highlights which lever is holding the roadmap back (e.g., [Market Reality]). It then turns the remedy into an actionable Decision Queue.

Read the pillar: Build What Moves the Needle →

FAQs

Should every bet reach 90/100 conviction?

No. High-risk, high-cost bets need higher conviction. Low-risk improvements can ship with lower conviction if they’re reversible and measurable.

What if we can’t get external validation?

Reduce scope until you can. If a bet can’t be validated at any size, it’s likely not decision-ready.